The first win vs Bayern Munich since May 2015 could see Freiburg one point clear of 8th/9th going into the season finale.
Freiburg
Freiburg are still alive in the race for Europe via seventh place. However, this fixture promises a wide range of eventual scenarios, with defeat potentially ending Freiburg’s European hopes by FT. Still, the first win vs Bayern Munich since May 2015 could see them one point clear of 8th/9th going into the season finale. As they do here, Freiburg faced a newly-crowned Bayern side in that 2015 H2H win but still conceded the opener inside 20 minutes. They also experienced the same in the last H2H here, though they are unbeaten in home games this calendar year in which they conceded during that early period.
Bayern Munich
Bayern may already be focusing on next season, but ‘Die Roten’ boast an excellent record from their last ten Bundesliga games played after sealing a title. They averaged 3.80 goals per match across those fixtures, scoring first inside 15 minutes in the last three, across which four of six individual halves saw them win by a two-goal margin. Unfortunately, the champions are yet to record a draw in away league action during 2021. Those expecting the visitors to be in ‘holiday mode’ should note that their two most recent away defeats both saw Bayern concede inside the first 15 minutes and lose the first half 2-0. Notably, though, their last 2 goal first-half loss in this H2H came back in August 1994!
Vincenzo Grifo equalised via a penalty in Freiburg’s last home game (81’), and now three of his last five penalty goals have come between the 61st-90th minute. It was also from the spot that Robert Lewandowski recently completed his fifth Bundesliga hat-trick of 2020/21. He’s averaged 2.0 goals per game across Bayern’s last three league wins attained after sealing a title and currently sits just one goal shy of Gerd Müller’s 40-goal Bundesliga season record.
Bayern have beaten a second-half handicap in eight of their last nine Bundesliga wins recorded after sealing a title.